POLITICS -- Analysis: Can Trump Hold the House?

"Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo" (rustyvandura) 02/02/2018 at 16:30 • Filed to: None

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Here is an interesting analysis in today’s Wall Street Journal where the writer compares the midterm election results in the House for various presidents and questions whether a happy economy can work in 45's favor. Happy economy hasn’t always.

O.C.’s $0.02: that besides the crazy liberal billionaire, I only hear Rs talking about impeachment and I only hear Rs talking about stealing an election. I also shake my head when Rs complain about the media’s hatred of 45 when 45 has gone to such great lengths to alienate the media.

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ttyymmnn > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/02/2018 at 16:35

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The Democrats’ impressive lead in the generic congressional ballot has slipped.

New York Times

For Sweden > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/02/2018 at 16:37

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No.

Longer answer: Nooo.

shop-teacher > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/02/2018 at 16:41

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There certainly is the possibility that a decent economy will help him out, but I feel like there’s another housing/building bubble brewing. Also, I don’t think I’ve ever experienced the general agitation of the public at large being this high before.

Chariotoflove > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/02/2018 at 16:43

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Well, I’m told he has rather small hands. So, intuitively, I’d have to go with “no”.

Spanfeller is a twat > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/02/2018 at 16:46

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Hopefully no.

But lets not get smug about all the statistical information that proves he’s gonna probably loose it, lets see:

FOR:
*His supporters are quite adamant about him and many reps still respect him
*House and Senate Republicans have different challenges to face and thus can appeal to a smaller audience in more customized ways (ie: centrist all the way to absolutely extreme)
*The economy tends to be the President’s lucky amulet or cursing, if Dems can’t prove that many of these economic gains are separated from the president’s decisions, voters will default to “Thanks to Trump this happened” *He did give a big ass tax cut to the wrong many people and that point will be balloned.
*Gerrymandering and tough voter registration laws will effect many Democrats in red states.

AGAINTS:
*Normally voters chose the opposition party to rule the house in the first midterm if dissatisfied (here we call it voto de castigo, and PRI lost a lot of governorships because of that )
*Voter turnout of the 2016 election was too low to show the real tendencies of the country and everyone is expecting a bigger show from the now uncomfortable Democrats that lost a presidential election because of not showing out to vote.
*Some of Trump’s supporters might switch to independents as he fails to keep campaign promises

ttyymmnn > Chariotoflove 02/02/2018 at 16:48

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Physiognomy FTW.

Chariotoflove > ttyymmnn 02/02/2018 at 16:50

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Precisely.

Tekamul > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/02/2018 at 16:54

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I think the economic success will come back to bite him, because most of the gains are going to coastal liberals, which his base hates.

Whether that plus a Summer of FBI rumors is enough to turn the seats needed is the million dollar question.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > ttyymmnn 02/02/2018 at 17:36

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Yeah, but Trump behaved less despicably during SOTU. We’ll see how long he can keep it up. If it turns out he can keep it going, then it’ll be bad news for the Ds.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > For Sweden 02/02/2018 at 17:37

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I hope you are correct. But if the economy remains buoyant and if Trump continues to be less of an asshole, then it’ll spell trouble for the Democrats.

DutchieDC2R > shop-teacher 02/02/2018 at 17:38

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The messed up thing about the housing bubble is, its not really ‘another one’ that is brewing. There will be ‘another one’ indeed, but itll be the same we had, with the same, worldwide mess, only, it will be directly related to the last one.

Sole reason will be the fact that the last bubble has not been burst at all.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > shop-teacher 02/02/2018 at 17:39

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Lots of firsts with 45. And hopefully, many lasts.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > ttyymmnn 02/02/2018 at 17:40

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Wait: is that a thing?

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > Spanfeller is a twat 02/02/2018 at 17:44

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*Voter turnout of the 2016 election was too low to show the real tendencies of the country and everyone is expecting a bigger show from the now uncomfortable Democrats that lost a presidential election because of not showing out to vote.

My money is on this one.

Chariotoflove > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/02/2018 at 17:54

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Sure, just like phrenology.

ttyymmnn > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/02/2018 at 18:00

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Yes .

PatBateman > shop-teacher 02/02/2018 at 23:32

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On the contrary. Millennials are about to start buying homes like mad, and they are a larger generation than the boomers. Considering that Millennials haven’t been buying homes until recently like previous generations, you might even see a further boom in new home builds.

shop-teacher > PatBateman 02/02/2018 at 23:38

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I hope you’re right.

PatBateman > Tekamul 02/02/2018 at 23:39

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Honestly, stock/bond market gains are positives for everyone who has a pension, 401k, annuity, or general involvement with investments.

More importantly, though, is when people see gains in their paychecks and increased economic activity/better jobs. Coastal liberals might be seeing gains as well, but Joe Schmoe in Ohio could give a damn about that.

PatBateman > shop-teacher 02/02/2018 at 23:41

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I can’t go into detail (DAMN YOU, SEC!), but some pretty smart analysts think I’m right. We’ll see, though.

pip bip - choose Corrour > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/03/2018 at 06:35

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no

oldmxer > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 02/04/2018 at 00:56

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ah, haven’t seen a Mohs Ostentatienne Opera in a while

Tekamul > PatBateman 02/04/2018 at 11:34

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Less than 50% of the US has investments. 401k enrollment is something like a third, then pensions are somewhere around 10%, non-overlapping individual investors is almost nothing. And save for public sector pensions, those people are concentrated, well, you know where.

Joe Schmoe from Ohio is getting bupkis, and you can bet come fall everybody’s gonna let him know about it.

PatBateman > Tekamul 02/04/2018 at 17:08

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We’ll see.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > PatBateman 02/04/2018 at 19:37

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https://www.forbes.com/sites/oliviergarret/2017/04/02/these-3-charts-show-why-commercial-real-estate-is-the-next-big-short/#19551b1d2e24

whats your take on the commercial market? . In my area there are loads of stores and ofices empty, yet htey keep building new ones without hesitation.

“whats that empty spot over there”

“Thats the closed sears, you must never go there”

PatBateman > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 02/04/2018 at 20:54

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Depends on the region, really. Higher energy prices means that Houston and Dallas (and other oil-centric areas of the nation) will see increased economic activity, thus greater demand for commercial space. Also, wherever the hell Amazon puts HQ2 will get a huge uptick in both residential and commercial RE. The more Millennials that create businesses, the greater the opportunity.

Other areas would see a decline in their markets, for varying factors. That’s my take, at least.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > oldmxer 02/04/2018 at 22:22

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Nothing says “Trump” so well.

Except maybe “Zil.”